Tuesday 11 May 2010

a public school coalition

Well, they seem to have come to an agreement - the two public schoolboys who lead the Conservative and Liberal Democrats appear to have agreed on an Eton/Westminster coalition.

All that punditry during the campaign was wrong - "vote this and get that" etc - I don't remember seeing vote Clegg and get Cameron as an option...

Brown has resigned after 13 years in Downing Street (10 years at Number 11 then 3 at Number 10). He went before any details of a coalition were announced. I wonder if this morning was his "f*ck it" moment? He had offered to stand down and offered to change the voting system for the LibDems but they just used his offers to squeeze more out of the Tories.

Cameron has moved into Number 10 without the details of the coalition having been published (or agreed yet by the LibDems and the Tory MPs). The decision making meetings are taking place as I write. Not sure what happens if the the MPs decide they don't like the deal. After all, many of the Tory MPs have been waiting for years for a chance of power and now they may miss out as a seat at the table goes to a LibDem, and many of the LibDems see themselves as on the centre-left of UK politics. I'm also wondering about the implications for the UK - how long will it remain a united kingdom if the Tory mandate is limited to 1 MP in Scotland and in Wales the LibDems have 3 MPs and the Tories 8 to Labour's 26.

On the local front, I've not seen any coverage of Chris Leslie but the neighbouring MPs, Lilian Greenwood (Nottingham South), Graham Allen (Nottingham North) and Vernon Coaker (Gedling) were busy keeping the electorate informed about what happens next for the Labour Party with quotes for the Nottingham Evening Post bout possible new leaders.

Sunday 9 May 2010

an island of red in a sea of blue

Nottingham (and Gedling) stayed Labour, and the map of constituencies show Nottingham as an island of red in a sea of blue. The result wasn't as close as some polls may have suggested, with Chris Leslie having a majority of 6,969 despite a 1.9% swing from Labour to the LibDems. The turn out of 56.4% was up by 7.5% from 2005 with 33112 people voting.

The final figures were:

Name Party Votes %
Christopher Leslie Labour15,02245.4
Sam BooteLiberal Democrat8,05324.3
Ewan LamontConservative7,84623.7
Pat WolfeUK Independence Party1,1383.4
Benjamin HoareGreen9282.8
Parvaiz SardarChristian Party1250.4

Nationally, the picture is very unclear. I think Paddy Ashdown summed it up best when he said that "The public have spoken, we're just not sure what they have said". Cleggmania failed to deliver more seats and Cameron has failed to win an outright majority. The figures, with 1 seat still to be declared due to the death of the UKIP candidate before election day make for a hung parliament:

Conservative306 seats
Labour258 sets
Liberal Democrat57 seats
Democratic Unionist Party 8 seats
Scottish National Party6 seats
Sinn Fein5 seats
Plaid Cymru3 seats
Social Democratic & Labour Party3 seats
Green1 seat (their first ever MP)
Alliance Party1 seat
Other (Speaker)1 seat

The BNP suffered across the country, failing in their hoped for seats of Barking and Stoke. In Barking, they even lost all their seats on the Council despite their plans for it being the first BNP run council. Let's see if they implode...

Since the election results became clear, the debate about potential coalitions or informal alliances has been continuous. The LibDems have been meeting with the Tories as the party with the most seats and the largest number of votes, but there have been lots of mutterings about what the (unwritten) constitution says and rumours to fill the airwaves on the 24 hour rolling TV news channels.

By tea time today we have had a series of meetings between the LibDem and Tory negotiating teams, a face to face meeting between Clegg and Cameron, hundreds of acres of newsprint speculating on what was being offered and possible outcomes, and a late development this evening with Clegg being spotted by a member of the public entering the Foreign Office by the back door while the media in Downing Street saw Brown stroll across the road into the front door. It then emerged that they had held a face to face meeting of their own.

I will probably keep this blog going until a decision is made and we have a government....

Wednesday 5 May 2010

an unwanted birthday present

I started this election blog hoping to be able to vote for something positive, and it has been hard to find anyone with a positive message. The only definite message from all the main parties has been the public sector will have to pay for the bankers' balls up. The main difference is how soon and how deeply the cuts will come...the only options being offered seems to be a choice between being shot now or gradually strangled. Personally, I was brought up to take responsibility for my actions (you make a mess, you clear it up). It's a shame that those in the financial markets do not have the same morality.

On the local leaflet front, this evening we received a personally addressed letter from Chris Leslie (as did everyone else on the electoral register I presume) asking us to vote Labour tomorrow. Apart from the expected warning about the damage that the tories could do, there was a short list of some of the Labour achievements - introducing the minimum wage and banning of hunting with hounds being two that are close to my heart. A positive reminder of their achievements.

We also had another leaflet through the door yesterday but I never got to see it. UKIP's leaflet didn't make it on to the stack to be read but was torn up and binned as soon as Sonia saw it. I get the feeling that they haven't got her vote.

I am fairly sure how I will vote tomorrow. My main hope is that I do not get a repeat of my 17th birthday in 1979...the next day the voters of the UK made Thatcher Prime Minister. Please, do not give me a similar present for my 48th birthday.

Tuesday 4 May 2010

and then I came across this video clip on You Tube

on the home straight?

I haven't commented on the last of the TV debates as I have been a bit busy. Most of the analysis suggested that it was a 3 way draw but my view was that Brown did better than expected given the "bigotgate" fiasco of the day before, Clegg stumbled and took his time to get his points over, and Cameron failed to land any clear blows and looked fretful.

Returning from a long weekend away in Northumbria, we found a few new leaflets waiting on the doormat. The LibDems have reissued their original one we got from the candidate back on 15th April but with a new "stop press" box on the front. Apparently Nick Clegg has done well in the TV debates!

There were a couple of glossy Labour leaflets as well, another copy of the one received on 23rd April, and a new large one featuring the door to No 10 which opens out to list all the things that Cameron would cut or cancel.

On the local front, Benjamin Barton has withdrawn as a candidate complaining that the £500 registration fee was expensive and sending out 63000 leaflets would have cost him up to £5000. And today's Nottingham Evening Post carries a story that up to a quarter of local voters are undecided. It also reports that, based on their figures, Nottingham East could remain a Labour seat.

While I've been typing this, Gordon Brown has been on BBC News 24 giving a barnstorming speech setting out over 50 achievements of the Labour governments over the last 13 years. And it is a positive message for a change as he talked about future plans.

I'll probably not blog tomorrow as it is my birthday, and Thursday is the big day itself. So my next blog entry will probably be after the results are known.

And as we move to the decision day, I think I know which way I'm going to vote...

Wednesday 28 April 2010

bigotgate

Well, Gordon Brown has called a Rochdale woman who was talking to him about too many eastern europeans coming into the country a bigot. And he has had to take nearly an hour out of his campaign timetable to apologise in the face of a media storm.

Here's a three basic lessons for anyone in the public eye when visiting a marginal constituency like Rochdale:
  1. don't be rude to some one with whom the public will sympathise (you are not going to come out well against grey haired widows & grandmothers)
  2. don't be rude to the electorate (especially to life long Labour supporters)
  3. if you feel the need to rude, make sure any microphones are off
On the local front, there is little risk of any candidates making similar gaffes as they haven't appeared "on the knock" (apart from the early showing by the LibDem on 15th April).

But we did get a glossy election communication through the post today from Chris Leslie. Nice big picture of him in front of Greens Windmill, and the picture inside of him holding the baby near The Sage in Gateshead is confirmed to be him with his family. Interestingly, the other individual photo inside the leaflet is of Sarah rather than Gordon Brown. This seems a mite ungrateful given how Mr Leslie was selected and having a tag line of "putting local people first" on the front cover could both be a gift to opponents.

The leaflet has 3 key messages:
  • education standards up
  • crime down
  • NHS improving
A positive message. Let's see how the leaders' debate on the BBC goes tomorrow.

Monday 26 April 2010

LibDems go glossy

I get the feeling that someone thinks Nottingham East might have moved from a "safe" Labour seat to being marginal.

Today's letterbox saw a glossy leaflet from Sam Boote, the Lib Dem candidate with a picture of Nick Clegg on the front that is as big as the photo of the candidate. The main messages are "change" and "being fair" whether that be:
  • fairer taxes
  • fair chances for every child
  • a fair future (green jobs) or
  • a fair deal from politicians.
These 4 main points inside the leaflet look like standard national text but the 5th point is very local. He is "standing up for fairness" with a call to save Victoria Baths by retaining and refurbishing the existing baths rather than "waste millions on knocking it down and building new baths". Looks to me like a bid for the local protest vote and a chance to embarrass the Labour controlled City Council. Not sure how a Rushcliffe Borough Councillor from Keyworth will be able to affect a decision that has already be made by the Executive Board of the City Council.

While typing this we had another newsletter through the door, this one is LibDem Focus (Berridge Ward Edition) and looks like another election leaflet. The back of the leaflet there are two photos - one of a mansion and the other of a street terraced houses - and a "Dave Spart" style message about the Tory tax cuts for millionaires and quotations from the candidate claiming that "David Cameron's shadow cabinet would personally earn millions out of the tax cuts they propose...No wonder more and more people are switching to back the Lib Dems in Sam Boote as the real alternative to Labour".

Looks like the LibDems are really trying to win. Let's see how the other parties respond this week.